Market Updates

Given the recent upside surprises in inflation, the market was somewhat relieved that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell made clear that the central bank is not considering raising rates. Powell only confirmed what we, and many others, had suspected: interest rate cuts are not that imminent anymore.

Thursday’s US GDP growth print revealed more inflationary pressures in the first quarter than expected. As such, the market now only expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates once or twice, in September and/or December.

In the latest tit-for-tat exchange, Israel struck Iran last Friday in response to Iran’s strike on Israel the previous week. It’s possible that Israel’s limited response could end the round of direct clashes between the two countries, at least for the time being, given that both countries have described their actions as a specific operation in response to the actions from the other (the very definition of tit-for-tat), rather than as an attempt to escalate more generally.

The release of the March US consumer inflation data, which was hotter than expected, lead markets to rethink when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting rates. Markets now expect the Fed will cut rates later and only twice this year.

Major equity indices fell last week, likely concerned by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices above 90 US dollars per barrel for the first time since October 2023.

After eight years in negative territory, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifted its key policy rate to 0-0.1% last week. It was an important move but widely expected, so markets carried on as usual.