Market Updates

Easing US-Iran tensions have helped stabilise oil prices, supporting bonds, while inflation concerns persist amid a stronger dollar and potential rate hikes. At the same time, equity markets face increased volatility, particularly in tech, as AI-driven growth continues to meet supply constraints and cost pressures.

US-Iran progress reduces geopolitical risks, but inflation remains and central banks stay cautious as AI drives both growth and costs.

Overnight, the US and Iran announced an agreement to end the war, with formal signing expected later this week in Switzerland. Details remain limited, but the key points appear to be an immediate halt to military operations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

We’re now into the fourth month of the US-Iran conflict, and markets are still reacting to each and every headline. Very little has changed since the ceasefire agreed on 8 April.

Financial markets delivered a mixed but overall resilient performance over the past week, highlighting an increasingly clear divergence between asset classes.

Equity markets reached fresh highs last week, with the S&P 500 moving into record territory. However, momentum faded towards the end of the trading week as renewed geopolitical and inflation concerns began to weigh on sentiment.

Markets swing on geopolitical headlines, but strong earnings and resilient fundamentals keep investors focused. Discover our outlook on equities and oil.

Today has some uncomfortable echoes of the 1970s. Back then, the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution sent energy prices soaring and pushed the US into stagflation. Growth stalled, inflation ran hot and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) struggled to get control of it.

Financial markets remain volatile as Middle East tensions persist. Explore how negotiations, global politics, and economic data are shaping investor sentiment.

Over the weekend, the US and Iran negotiated under a 14-day ceasefire framework announced by US President Donald Trump, which is set to expire on 22 April. The situation remains highly uncertain.

Overnight, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil flows. Risk assets quickly rebounded.

The conflict between the US/Israel and Iran inevitably draws comparisons to early 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and markets sold off sharply. Back then, the trigger was an inflation and interest rate spike driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus, supply-chain strains and booming demand once the economy reopened after the pandemic lockdowns.