Our insights

May 2026 market outlook: how oil prices, geopolitics and inflation shape portfolio positioning, with a focus on quality equities, bonds and diversification.

We see the current volatility and the recent market concerns on a few private debt funds as something investors should keep an eye on, but don’t think we’re looking at a global private debt crisis at this stage. While contagion is a possible risk we’re monitoring very closely, for now the issues appear to be contained within Business Development Companies (BDCs) in the US.

Geopolitics continues to dominate the headlines and has triggered bouts of market volatility over the past month or so. But there’s a wide range of possible outcomes. A de-escalation of the Iran conflict could support a quick recovery. A prolonged disruption, conversely, could weigh more heavily on the economy, raise inflation and lower asset prices. 

The attack by the US and Israel on Iran this Saturday has been bubbling for some time, but the weekend’s timing came as somewhat of a surprise. Oil prices had been rising in recent weeks due to expectations that supplies could be disrupted by a military conflict. Heightened uncertainty is likely to lend further support to oil prices. It could also lift safe-haven assets such as gold. The length and scale of the conflict are key for investors’ next moves.

February 2026 market outlook: why staying invested matters amid geopolitical volatility, improving economic conditions, equity preferences and disciplined diversification.

The macro backdrop is turning more supportive, even as geopolitical risks persist. Cyclical and structural forces, from monetary and fiscal stimulus to AI investment and a more multi-polar world, are reshaping markets.

In our 2026 Counterpoint Investment Outlook, we share our views on global capital markets, economic dynamics and the themes shaping portfolios today.

The final stretch of the year is always a good time to pause and reflect. What’s gone as expected? What’s surprised us? And what does that mean for portfolio positioning?

As investors return from the summer break, we’re seeing signs of renewed market momentum. Liquidity is improving and, while there have been occasional bouts of volatility and mixed headlines, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Equities have continued to rally throughout July and August even as economic growth slowed and political uncertainty lingered. Much of this resilience has been supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates sooner than previously expected.

A widening budget deficit and an increasing debt level in the US pose a risk to US Treasuries. Therefore, we’ve decided to further reduce our US Treasury exposure and reallocate part of the proceeds to Japanese government bonds and part to US equities.

We’re buying gold as we think the US dollar is likely to weaken further. We’re funding this purchase by selling some European government bonds. Valuations for southern European sovereign bonds are expensive, and the increase in bond issuance to finance the fiscal plans of Germany and France is a risk.

During our recent rebalancing, we opted for a ‘roughly neutral’ equity stance in lower-risk profiles and a slight overweight in riskier ones instead of fully reinstating our previous overweight. This helped us benefit from the equity recovery in late April and early May. So, with equities appreciating, we are now slightly overweight. We are comfortable maintaining this overweight position, given the easing of trade tensions, including the recent US-China trade agreement to lower tariffs for an initial 90-day period.