Our insights

May 2026 market outlook: how oil prices, geopolitics and inflation shape portfolio positioning, with a focus on quality equities, bonds and diversification.

We see the current volatility and the recent market concerns on a few private debt funds as something investors should keep an eye on, but don’t think we’re looking at a global private debt crisis at this stage. While contagion is a possible risk we’re monitoring very closely, for now the issues appear to be contained within Business Development Companies (BDCs) in the US.

Geopolitics continues to dominate the headlines and has triggered bouts of market volatility over the past month or so. But there’s a wide range of possible outcomes. A de-escalation of the Iran conflict could support a quick recovery. A prolonged disruption, conversely, could weigh more heavily on the economy, raise inflation and lower asset prices. 

The technology sector is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in years. Nowhere is this more visible than in software, which long seen as the safe, high‑margin backbone of the digital economy. While semiconductor stocks continue to rise, software valuations have come under heavy pressure.

We are adjusting our portfolios to reflect a changing geopolitical environment. This means increasing our investments in the defence sector and reducing our exposure to major oil companies.

The attack by the US and Israel on Iran this Saturday has been bubbling for some time, but the weekend’s timing came as somewhat of a surprise. Oil prices had been rising in recent weeks due to expectations that supplies could be disrupted by a military conflict. Heightened uncertainty is likely to lend further support to oil prices. It could also lift safe-haven assets such as gold. The length and scale of the conflict are key for investors’ next moves.

February 2026 market outlook: why staying invested matters amid geopolitical volatility, improving economic conditions, equity preferences and disciplined diversification.

The global economy is entering a new phase shaped by structural rather than cyclical forces, with the investment landscape becoming more fragmented, multi-polar and thematically driven. In this environment, long-term returns are likely to be generated less by broad market exposure and more by targeted positioning in transformative trends, many of which are closely linked to sustainability.

The macro backdrop is turning more supportive, even as geopolitical risks persist. Cyclical and structural forces, from monetary and fiscal stimulus to AI investment and a more multi-polar world, are reshaping markets.

In our 2026 Counterpoint Investment Outlook, we share our views on global capital markets, economic dynamics and the themes shaping portfolios today.

Investing is about the future. It’s uncertain, constantly evolving and impossible to predict with precision. That’s why conviction doesn’t mean clinging to forecasts – it means building a clear, adaptable view based on logic, not emotion. Investment outlooks offer a base case, but we’re not bound to them. As economies shift and markets move, we refine our thinking and adjust our views. This is conviction: a disciplined process that adapts to change instead of resisting it.

The final stretch of the year is always a good time to pause and reflect. What’s gone as expected? What’s surprised us? And what does that mean for portfolio positioning?