Our insights

For years, investors became accustomed to a world where bonds offered little reward. Government bond yields hovered near zero or even in negative territory, central banks dominated markets, and generating a meaningful level of income often required taking significantly more risk. In that environment, bond investors depended heavily on falling yields and rising prices to achieve attractive returns. Today, the landscape looks very different.

US midterm elections are presented primarily as an investment and economic event rather than a political contest. The analysis expects divided government to be the most likely outcome, with markets eventually refocusing on growth, inflation, interest rates, and company fundamentals.

Markets remain supported by resilient growth and solid corporate earnings, but rising debt levels, geopolitical tensions and energy risks warrant caution.

How selective profit-taking, higher bond yields and greater selectivity within equities are shaping portfolio positioning as the economic cycle matures.

SpaceX’s rise highlights the evolving link between space technology, sustainability and energy, from reusable rockets to satellite connectivity and proposed space-based data infrastructure.

A new wave of mega-IPOs, led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, could reshape equity markets. These listings aim to raise significant capital for AI and infrastructure rather than provide exits, raising concerns about high valuations and the market’s ability to absorb such large supply without potential re-pricing.

In our 2026 mid-year Counterpoint Outlook, we look at how geopolitics, oil prices, resilient earnings and shifting market leadership are shaping portfolio positioning today.

Every four years, the FIFA World Cup becomes a global stage for billions of people and for some of the world’s biggest brands. The objective is clear: maximum visibility, higher sales, and a positive influence to their share prices.

May 2026 market outlook: how oil prices, geopolitics and inflation shape portfolio positioning, with a focus on quality equities, bonds and diversification.

We see the current volatility and the recent market concerns on a few private debt funds as something investors should keep an eye on, but don’t think we’re looking at a global private debt crisis at this stage. While contagion is a possible risk we’re monitoring very closely, for now the issues appear to be contained within Business Development Companies (BDCs) in the US.

Geopolitics continues to dominate the headlines and has triggered bouts of market volatility over the past month or so. But there’s a wide range of possible outcomes. A de-escalation of the Iran conflict could support a quick recovery. A prolonged disruption, conversely, could weigh more heavily on the economy, raise inflation and lower asset prices. 

The technology sector is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in years. Nowhere is this more visible than in software, which long seen as the safe, high‑margin backbone of the digital economy. While semiconductor stocks continue to rise, software valuations have come under heavy pressure.