COUNTERPOINT

“Economists will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn’t happen” is a joke that, in this fast-moving market cycle, has a deeper lesson. Rather than sticking to an all-knowing prediction, it’s more fruitful to use a transparent cause-effect framework to recalibrate the base case as events unfold.

Sales and earnings growth for Q1 2022 in both the US and Europe exceeded expectations, led by strong energy sector results. The percentage of companies beating forecasts is above the long-term trend, but the margin of surprise is lower than recent quarters.

We put sustainable investing at the core of our investment philosophy and make it our default investment proposition. Sustainable investment strategies are deployed in an innovative way with the aim of creating investment values for our clients whilst benefiting people and the planet.

In the mid-1990s, British Prime Minister John Major reportedly asked Russian President Boris Yeltsin to describe the Russian economy in one word. He replied “good”. Surprised by this assessment, Major asked Yeltsin if he could describe it in two words.

Following a poor start to 2022, Asia high yield (HY) bonds have staged a notable recovery since mid-March. We have been holding a tactical overweight position against USD investment grade (IG) bonds. What are the main features of the Asia HY market and our outlook for the asset class?

Some segments of the Treasury curve are now inverted. While investors see this as a warning signal, the reality is more nuanced. We explore what it means for the probability of US recession, and for equity and other asset class returns.