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An old saying about this or that economy trying to fix its structural problems is that it’s the opportunity of the future… and always will be. The opportunity never really materialises in full, or doesn’t last long enough. To strategists, sometimes the euro area feels like this.

Scores of economists cut their teeth on one of the many editions of Rudi Dornbusch’s textbook: Macroeconomics. While the title may seem perhaps a bit unimaginative – at least to some – the author’s quotes are the stuff of legend. One in particular resonates today: “in economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could”. Take gold.

A side-effect of prolonged lockdowns is that the entire Netflix catalogue gets nearly exhausted at some point. When that happens, classics come back in vogue – both films and economic topics. If The Postman Always Rings Twice, so does inflation: it makes the news both when it happens and then a year later, when it distorts comparisons that look back 12 months.

The pandemic has turbocharged a range of pre-existing trends that are changing the way of doing things across many economies. While quantifying the macro impact is highly uncertain, these shifting paradigms are already visible at the sector level.

Economists’ failure to accurately predict the magnitude of big events like booms and recessions and – perhaps more often than they’d like to admit – the timing of these events with sufficient foresight, inevitably makes them the target of all sorts of jokes: for example, how can you tell that economists have a sense of humour? Because they put decimal points in their forecasts.