COUNTERPOINT

Any self-respecting investment strategist derives a fair amount of titles for research reports from Western films. If it’s scenario analysis, then The Good, the Bad and the Ugly does a good job. If it’s fiscal and political uncertainty we’re talking about, as we’ve seen in the UK recently (leading to Liz Truss’s resignation and the shortest government in the country’s history), perhaps The Wild Bunch. And, of course, A Fistful of Dollars refers to currencies.

Markets are full of sayings that somehow have to do with water: “one tide lifts all boats” when liquidity comes in; or, vice versa, “when the tide goes out, you find out who’s swimming naked”. Or they have to do with animals: are you a “bull” or a “bear”? Investors ask hurriedly.

The success of monetary and fiscal stimulus in cushioning the pandemic blow is well known. But the resulting demand surge, pressing against constrained supply, has also produced an excess of inflation and rising interest rates – a drag on equities.

“Why do economists use decimal points in their forecasts? To show that they have a sense of humour” is a joke that resurfaces in the marketplace every time volatility picks up. There’s some truth in this. Things rarely move consistently in one direction. So incrementally tracking how they’re unfolding is useful.

Our Counterpoint mid-year outlook, published a few days ago, goes from micro to macro and thematic. It talks about how geopolitical and supply shocks in the age of disruption are impacting companies, sectors, inflation and economic policy, our energy supply and technologies, creating risks and opportunities along the way.

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