29 March 2021
A crash of rhinos
The capital sins of forecasting are flip-flopping (rapidly switching from one view to another, back and forth) and salami-slicing (frequently making incremental, insignificant changes). Dealing with uncertainty is a key part of forecasting. There are two types of risks. Black swans, such as Covid-19, are unknown unknowns, high-impact but very rare events that investors often underappreciate.