COUNTERPOINT

The world is changing rapidly, driven by technological and environmental factors, and these shifts could have profound long-term implications for investors. Our thematic framework can help navigate the evolving investment landscape.

Paraphrasing an old adage, a forecaster is a portfolio manager who never marks to market. There’s some truth in this. There’s a disincentive in rapidly shifting views back and forth – which is equal to not having a view.

In the third quarter of 2021, inflation rose in most countries and the global economy faced ongoing supply chain issues. Despite concerns about how these challenges would impact earnings, the results are better than expected and forecasts have been revised higher across most sectors.

In this latest note focusing on our strategic asset allocation (SAA), we explore our updated risk and return expectations for the next 10 years. What has driven the change in our capital market assumptions (CMAs) and how do they affect investment portfolios?

We’re often asked this question when discussing our current tactical overweight in equities over bonds, and understandably so. Many measures of equity valuations are high compared with history. But that doesn’t mean global stock markets can’t continue to rise.

Markets are grappling with two new(ish) facts. First, energy prices are surging. Second, central banks are diverging. Have investors seen this movie before?