2026 begins on firmer ground than many feared. The recession that many expected in 2025 never materialised. Fiscal stimulus, falling interest rates and steady policy support have helped markets recover even as global politics and trade remain complex. A more predictable rhythm of US-China negotiations and reduced trade uncertainty have also contributed to the recovery.
Beneath the surface, the world is shifting to a more fragmented multi-polar landscape. This regional fragmentation is fuelling competition for key technologies and supplies, while ageing populations and rising sovereign debt keep funding costs higher than before. These forces imply wider divergence in outcomes and less predictable market relationships, making differentiation across asset classes and geographies more important than ever.
In our 2026 Counterpoint Investment Outlook, we share our views on global capital markets, economic dynamics and the themes shaping portfolios today.
Download the full outlook to explore our views and strategies for the year ahead
Daniele Antonucci
Daniele Antonucci is a managing director, co-head of investment and chief investment officer at Quintet Private Bank. Based in Luxembourg, he jointly chairs the investment committee, owning decision-making and performance outcomes. As head of research, Daniele oversees the investment strategy feeding into portfolios and the teams of specialists across asset classes and solutions, ranging from macro, fixed income and equities to funds, alternatives, and structured products and derivatives. He leads the network of chief strategists, communicating the house view on the economy and markets to financial advisors, clients and the media.
Prior to joining Quintet in 2020 as chief economist and macro strategist, Daniele served as chief euro area economist at Morgan Stanley in London. He completed the High Performance Leadership Programme at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, holds a master’s degree in economics from Duke University and graduated from the Sapienza University of Rome. Featured in The Economist and Financial Times and often quoted in the generalist press, he’s a published author in finance and economics journals and investment magazines, a frequent speaker on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and an ECB Shadow Council member.
Our View of the Year Ahead
We believe growth is likely to remain positive in 2026 as trade uncertainty fades and stimulus supports demand.
While volatility may persist, AI-driven investment and lower rates create opportunities for long-term investors.
4 Forces Shaping 2026
#1
Lower Trade Uncertainty
US trade policy is clearer, reducing volatility and supporting global growth.
#2
Lower Interest Rates
Central banks are cutting rates, easing financial conditions and boosting confidence.
#3
Higher Fiscal Stimulus
Governments are spending more on infrastructure, defence and tax cuts, sustaining demand.
#4
Higher AI Capital Spending
AI investment is accelerating, driving productivity and creating new opportunities.
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