Our Investment Market Overview

Our Investment Market Overview

While the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 and Fed tightening are making the outlook more uncertain, we believe our moderate risk-on positioning remains tactically appropriate as the initial shock is now behind us. Longer term, the investment implications of a changing world are profound.
Disruption across companies and sectors
Disruption across companies and sectors
The global outlook is more uncertain as markets confront a stagflationary shock, lowering economic and earnings growth and raising inflation. Energy and food prices are high, supply chains and trade flows disrupted, financial conditions tighter, and business and consumer confidence lower...
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Why we think the rate rise won’t rock the boat
All this has a macro counterpart, too. Inflation may start slowing from high levels over the next few months as demand moderates from super-strong rates to more normal ones, supply is gradually repaired, the monetary stance gets back to neutral, the US fiscal impulse has already waned and the comparison with the corresponding period of the previous year mechanically pushes inflation lower – if there are no further price shocks...
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Why we think the rate rise won’t rock the boat
What to make of inflation
What to make of inflation
Currency-wise, this suggests a fairly neutral view on the US dollar and sterling, as we think the euro – eventually – will probably recover somewhat, as the ECB slowly starts to normalise interest rates. We still expect a weak Swiss franc and Japanese yen, and we’re fairly neutral on emerging market currencies...
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What are our five conviction calls?
We have identified five calls we believe will dominate the global economy and financial markets over the rest of 2022 and beyond.
Discover all 5 calls

Download the full report
The war in Ukraine, Covid-19, and Fed tightening are making the market outlook more uncertain. Read our mid-year Counterpoint investment outlook report to gain insights and understand how we interpret for you investment implications, in this changing world.

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